Hendzel is betting on these.

Public predictions with dates. I revisit them. Wrong ones move to /wrong.

2026 · 05 · 23 → resolves 2028 · 01 · 01

AI-native solo founders will outnumber two-person startups by end of 2027.

Confidence: 60%. The economics of one person + AI agents already beat two-person teams for everything below ~$2M ARR. The behavioural shift lags the economic one by about 18 months.

2026 · 05 · 23 → resolves 2026 · 12 · 31

McLaren wins the constructors' championship.

Confidence: 70%. The 2026 regulation reset hit Ferrari harder than the paddock thinks. Norris and Piastri are also genuinely the strongest driver pair on the grid this year.

2026 · 05 · 23 → resolves 2027 · 06 · 01

Substack loses meaningful share to self-hosted publications by mid-2027.

Confidence: 40%. The technical bar to ship a personal publication on a static stack just dropped under one weekend. Hosting is functionally free. The only thing holding Substack up is distribution — and that's eroding too.

2026 · 05 · 23 → resolves 2027 · 03 · 01

Polish .pl domain registrations grow faster than .com globally in 2026.

Confidence: 25%. Long shot. Reasoning: Polish solo founders are noticeably increasing, .pl is cheap, and English-first defaults are wearing thin in EU markets.